Herself’s Artificial Intelligence

Can a fringe branch of mathematics forecast the future? A special adviser to the CIA, Fortune 500 companies, and the U.S. Department of Defense certainly thinks so. If you listen to Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, and a lot of people don’t, he’ll claim that mathematics can tell you the future. In fact, the professor says that a computer model he built and has perfected over the last 25 years can predict the outcome of virtually any international conflict, provided the basic input is accurate. What’s more, his predictions are alarmingly specific. His fans include at least one current presidential hopeful, a gaggle of Fortune 500 companies, the CIA, and the Department of Defense. Naturally, there is also no shortage of people less fond of his work. “Some people think Bruce is the most brilliant foreign policy analyst there is,” says one colleague. “Others think he’s a quack.” . . .[ read more Good Magazine - The New Nostradamus ]

Unfortunately none of B de Mesquita’s papers were readily available. You can access several from J Stor if your school or local library has access. So I can’t verify if his predictions do in fact come true. He uses game theory, math and computer simulations to predict political outcomes. Game theory has had quite a bit of success in political predictions so it is entirely possible he has been very successful. According to B de Mesquita 90% of them have come to pass.

More information:
Math Trek: Mathematical Fortune Telling
NYU Faculty - Bruce Bueno De Mesquita

I did find several articles published in political magazines.
How foreign aid can help the poor and why it doesn’t by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita ( National Review )
The political roots of poverty: The economic logic of autocracy (National Interest )
Political Instability as a Source of Growth ( Business Wire )

See also:
Game Theory